Web Tools & Models

Earth System Model of the the Leibniz Institut of the Baltic Research (IOW-ESM) produces climate change scenarios for the most common ocean and atmospheric variables. It downscales global climate change scenarios from the CMIP6 suite using a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model with a passively coupled marine biogeochemistry module. In CoastalFutures, this model is used to produce a climate change ensemble to assess future changes in air temperature, precipitation, water temperature and salinity, oxygen, productivity, water pH, sea level, and many other variables up to the year 2100. The regional climate projections will be used to produce scenarios for marine ecosystems using impact models (e.g species distribution models).
Read further: https://www.io-warnemuende.de/coupled-model.html

FESOM-C is the coastal branch of the global ocean model FESOM2 developed to address the small-scale dynamics in the coastal waters, which are not usually covered by the ocean models. Its high spatial and temporal resolution allows us to study formation, spreading, and mixing of the water masses on the shelf and how these affect the biogeochemical cycle of the shelf waters. It is particularly suitable to study tidal residual circulation on the shelf and its changes under the influence of climatic factors, as well as the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial zones. In CoastalFutures, this model provides a base for analysis of the Sylt-Rømø Bight dynamics, from physical processes to the food web and ecosystem conditions.
Read further: https://fesom.de/models/fesom-c/

Individual-based models of larval fish

Grafic: Daewel et al. 2015 (Fig.2)

The early-life history of marine fishes is one of the main determinants of the recruitment variability and an important bottleneck in the adaptation of fish populations to changing climate and anthropogenic disturbances. Individual-based models (IBMs) that simulate the behavior of an individual fish and its interactions with the biotic and abiotic environment are widely used in fisheries science to study starvation, predation and dispersal mortality of fish early-life stages. In CoastalFutures, we are using stand-alone or coupled larval IBMs to better understand how natural and anthropogenic stressors affect mortality and survival of larval fish in the vicinity of the spawning and nursery areas of the commercially important fish species in the North and the Baltic Seas. mehr

OSMOSE Model

OSMOSE is a multi-species and individual-based model (IBM) for fish species. Here, the model represents 12 species (pelagic and benthic: Sole, Haddock, Sprat, Saithe, Dab, Sandeed, Herring, Plaice, Cod, Pout, Gurnard and Whiting) of economic interest in the North Sea. The model assumes opportunistic predation based on spatial co-occurrence and size adequacy between a predator and its prey. OSMOSE represents major processes of fish life cycle (growth, reproduction, migration, and mortality). Fish individuals are grouped into schools or ‘super-individuals’ which are characterized by their size, weight, age, species, and geographical location. OSMOSE is a 2D model (horizontal representation) which have a resolution of 10km grid on the horizontal and run with a two-week’s time step. To provide prey field to the fish, OSMOSE is coupled to hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models, here NEMO-ECOSMO. In output, a variety of size-based and species-based ecological indicators are produced at different levels of aggregation: at the species level (e.g. mean size, mean size-at-age, maximum size, mean trophic level, within-species distribution of trophic level), and at the community level (e.g. slope and intercept of size spectrum, Shannon diversity index, mean trophic level of catch). https://osmose-model.org/

Species distribution models are often applied to estimate the effects of environmental (e.g. temperature, primary productivity, bathymetry ) or anthropogenic (e.g. intensity of maritime traffic, construction and operation of windfarms) factors on the abundance and spatial distribution of marine mammals. Once these effects are quantified, species distribution models can be used to predict distribution of marine mammals in the areas with no observations or under future conditions. In Coastal Futures, we aim to study the distribution of harbour porpoise in the North and the Baltic Seas and how this animal responds to the changing environment due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. To achieve this, data on porpoise density collected along standardized surveys together with the associated values of environmental and anthropogenic factors will be used to calibrate a species distribution model. This modelling will provide additional information to adapt future conservation and management measures for the harbour porpoise.

Knowledge on the spatial distribution of species provides valuable information on the state of marine ecosystems. Species distribution models allow to identify the environmental variables mainly influencing species occurrence, to detect when and how changes of the spatial distribution of species occur, to investigate how anthropogenic activities affect the species and to predict potential changes in the future. Developing and applying species distribution models for different seabird species, we aim to study the effects of anthropogenic activities as well as climate change which will furthermore help to evaluate conservation measures and to develop future conservation concepts.